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The End Is Always Near

Dan Carlin

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Preface

Carlin frames the book as a set of historical vignettes rather than a single argument. He explores whether civilizations inevitably collapse, whether pandemics, wars, and disasters will recur, and how humans cope when systems fail. His approach mirrors his Hardcore History podcast—storytelling focused on human experience rather than strict academic analysis.

Chapter 1 – Do Tough Times Make for Tougher People?

Explores the idea that hardship produces resilience. Carlin contrasts the “Greatest Generation” who endured the Depression and World War II with softer modern generations. He traces this argument back to Voltaire, Plutarch, and Livy, who believed luxury weakens societies. Case studies include Sparta’s militarized upbringing, the fall of the Medes, and Delbrück’s theory that organized armies offset the raw “toughness” of barbarians. Carlin questions whether toughness still matters in modern war when technology dominates.

Chapter 2 – Suffer the Children

Focuses on child-rearing across history. Psychohistorian Lloyd deMause argued that most premodern children would qualify as abuse victims today. Practices such as beatings, sexual exploitation, neglect, wet-nursing, and child labor were common. Carlin considers how such upbringing shaped societies—perhaps creating cultures of violence or trauma. He also highlights how norms shift: what once was accepted (like corporal punishment) now seems abusive.

Chapter 3 – The End of the World as They Knew It

Examines civilizational collapse, especially the Bronze Age collapse (1200–1150 BCE). Carlin discusses Troy, Mycenaean Greece, the Hittites, and Egypt, showing how interconnected societies disintegrated rapidly. Causes remain debated: sea peoples, climate change, famine, earthquakes, plagues, or systemic collapse. He compares this uncertainty to modern fears—could our own “advanced” civilization suddenly unravel?

Chapter 4 – Judgment at Nineveh

Covers the fall of the Assyrian Empire (7th century BCE). Assyria, once dominant and feared, collapsed shockingly fast, leaving a geopolitical vacuum. Carlin reflects on the fragility of empires, even seemingly invincible ones, and the speed with which power structures can disintegrate when enemies combine and internal weaknesses fester.

Chapter 5 – The Barbarian Life Cycle

Traces the pattern of so-called “barbarian” peoples: initially poor and tough, they defeat richer civilizations, build their own states, then soften and decline. Examples include Germanic tribes, nomadic steppe peoples, and even the Spartans. Carlin examines the cyclic nature of “tough outsiders” reshaping history, only to later be conquered themselves.

Chapter 6 – A Pandemic Prologue?

Explores the recurring role of pandemics. Carlin notes how premodern societies regularly endured massive plagues that killed huge portions of the population, like the Black Death. He speculates on the resilience such experiences bred and compares them to today’s unpreparedness. Pandemics remind us that civilization’s stability can be shattered by forces beyond human control.

Chapter 7 – The Quick and the Dead

Focuses on weapons of mass destruction in history. From ancient siege engines to firebombing cities in World War II and ultimately nuclear weapons, Carlin asks whether humans can handle such destructive power without self-annihilation. He recalls moral choices—like the atomic bombings of Japan—and questions whether modern societies are “too civilized” or just untested in extreme conditions.

Chapter 8 – The Road to Hell

Discusses moral dilemmas and atrocities in wartime. How far can humans go under pressure? Carlin looks at carpet bombing, genocide, and torture, noting how ordinary people become complicit in horrors. He suggests that circumstances, rather than innate evil, often push societies down this road. The chapter warns about human capacity for brutality when survival or victory is at stake.

Afterword

Carlin emphasizes humility: civilizations always thought themselves secure, yet collapse was common. Our modern world could face similar fates—pandemic, war, environmental disaster, or systemic breakdown. Remembering history may help us prepare, but hubris remains a timeless danger.

Preface

  • Topics: collapse of civilizations, pandemics, nuclear war, fragility of human progress.
  • Examples: imagined ruins of New York or Tokyo, Bronze Age collapse, Assyria, Rome, pandemics, world wars.
  • Reason why: Carlin frames the book as a reflection on past catastrophes to warn that modern civilization is not immune.

Chapter 1 – Do Tough Times Make for Tougher People?

  • Great Depression & WWII
    • People born 1900–1930 endured poverty and then global war.
    • Carlin argues this produced resilience (“Greatest Generation”).
  • US WWII casualties & bombings
    • Iwo Jima, Blitz of London, US firebombing, and Hiroshima/Nagasaki.
    • Illustrates the extreme toughness required to both endure and inflict suffering.
  • Ancient Historians (Plutarch, Livy, Voltaire)
    • Believed luxury softens societies, while hardship creates virtue.
  • Medes (Durant’s account)
    • Rose from poverty, overthrew Assyria, then softened and fell.
    • Example of “wooden shoes → silk slippers” cycle.
  • Sparta
    • Military upbringing (infanticide, harsh training, communal life).
    • Shows how entire cultures engineered toughness.
  • Afghanistan vs. modern West
    • Afghans hardened by decades of war.
    • Carlin asks whether modern militaries would survive without tech advantages.
  • Reason why: Carlin uses these examples to question if softness in peace and luxury undermines survival when catastrophe strikes.

Chapter 2 – Suffer the Children

  • Lloyd deMause (psychohistory)
    • Argues nearly all premodern children would be considered abuse victims today.
  • Corporal punishment
    • Implements like rods, whips, and “disciplines.”
    • Shows harshness was normalized.
  • Lady Jane Grey
    • Beaten regularly, accepted as love.
    • Illustrates how cultural norms shaped understanding of “care.”
  • Sexual abuse in antiquity
    • Ancient Mediterranean societies normalized adult-child sex.
    • Raises question: did children suffer lasting trauma or was culture protective?
  • Opium and liquor for infants
    • “Godfrey’s cordial” in 18th c., whiskey on gums.
    • Example of harmful but well-intentioned practices.
  • Public executions
    • Parents beat children while making them watch, to reinforce memory.
  • Wet nurses (Paris, 18th c.)
    • Most infants raised by strangers, then uprooted again.
  • Child labor/apprenticeship
    • Children sent to mines, factories, or farms.
  • Reason why: Carlin shows how child-rearing practices shaped societies’ emotional and cultural makeup, possibly creating entire civilizations of “abused children” who perpetuated cycles of violence.

Chapter 3 – The End of the World as They Knew It

  • Fall of Rome
    • Debates: decline vs. transition.
  • Planet of the Apes reference
    • Warning that we could regress as Romans did.
  • The Iliad & Troy (Schliemann’s excavation)
    • Oral tradition preserved memory of collapse.
  • Bronze Age civilizations
    • Egypt, Hittites, Assyria, Babylon, Mycenae, Minoa.
    • All part of interconnected system (~1500–1200 BCE).
  • Bronze Age Collapse (1200–1150 BCE)
    • Cities destroyed, literacy lost, trade collapsed.
  • Theories of collapse:
    • Sea Peoples (pirates/migrants/invaders).
    • Famine/drought.
    • Earthquakes/volcanoes.
    • Plague.
    • Systemic breakdown.
  • Reason why: Carlin highlights how great civilizations can unravel suddenly, leaving future generations mystified by the ruins.

Chapter 4 – Judgment at Nineveh

  • Fall of the Assyrian Empire (7th century BCE)
    • Once feared conquerors, then suddenly destroyed by coalitions (Babylonians, Medes, Scythians).
  • Reason why: Carlin uses Assyria as an example of an “invincible” empire erased almost overnight, showing the fragility of great powers.

Chapter 5 – The Barbarian Life Cycle

  • Pattern of barbarians:
    1. Poor outsiders are tough.
    2. Conquer rich civilizations.
    3. Grow wealthy and soft.
    4. Fall to the next wave of outsiders.
  • Examples:
    • Germanic tribes vs. Rome.
    • Steppe nomads (Huns, Mongols).
    • Spartans (tough → softened → defeated).
    • Persians bribing Spartans with gold.
  • Reason why: Illustrates cyclical nature of civilizations, questioning whether wealth inevitably corrupts toughness.

Chapter 6 – A Pandemic Prologue?

  • Historical pandemics:
    • Plague of Athens, Antonine Plague, Justinian Plague, Black Death.
  • Impact: killed huge percentages of populations, altered economies and politics.
  • Modern vulnerability: we assume pandemics are “medieval,” but Carlin warns they can return (eerily prescient of COVID-19).
  • Reason why: Shows pandemics as equalizers that repeatedly humbled civilizations.

Chapter 7 – The Quick and the Dead

  • Weapons escalation:
    • Ancient siege weapons → gunpowder → industrial war → nukes.
  • WWII examples:
    • Firebombing of Dresden & Tokyo.
    • Hiroshima and Nagasaki.
  • Moral dilemmas:
    • Patton’s idea that victory is about killing the enemy, not just enduring.
    • Civilians targeted on massive scale.
  • Reason why: Carlin asks whether humans can handle such destructive tools without destroying themselves, showing the link between technological progress and existential risk.

Chapter 8 – The Road to Hell

  • Moral descent in war:
    • Torture, genocide, atrocities rationalized in desperate times.
  • WWII examples:
    • Nazi Holocaust.
    • Allied bombing campaigns.
  • Carpet bombing logic: kill civilians to break morale.
  • Reason why: Carlin shows how “ordinary” people and states can commit atrocities when survival is at stake, questioning whether morality is situational.

Afterword

  • Themes: humility, fragility, hubris.
  • Examples: Bronze Age collapse, Assyria, Rome, pandemics, nuclear war.
  • Reason why: Carlin concludes that civilizations always think they are immune—until they aren’t. Our world may face the same fate.

Highlights