Skip to content
Read • Question • ConnectAnthony’s notes & researchReturn with a new question
Anthony’s NotesA personal field guide
From the notebook

Taiwan

⬅️ Hub: China · Previous: China - Xinjiang · Next: China Industrialization

For Taiwan’s Indigenous history and successive Dutch, Zheng, Qing, Japanese, and ROC colonial formations, see China - Colonialism and Settler Colonialism > Taiwan — successive colonialisms.

Historical sovereignty, legal status, cross-Strait politics, deterrence, public opinion, and international dynamics.

Original notes

PeriodStatusHistorical Context
Xia through SongNo ControlThere is no evidence of administrative control. Ancient texts (like the Shujing) mention distant islands, but historians generally agree these were not Taiwan or were mythological.
Yuan DynastyPartial/MarginalThe Yuan established a “Penghu Inspection Magistrate” in the Penghu Islands(between Taiwan and the mainland), but did not extend formal administration to the main island of Taiwan.
Ming DynastyNo ControlLike the Yuan, the Ming maintained a presence in Penghu but largely considered Taiwan “outside the wilderness” (huawai). It was used by pirates and traders until the Dutch (1624) and Spanish (1626) arrived.
Kingdom of Tungning1662–1683Koxinga (a Ming loyalist) expelled the Dutch. While he claimed to represent the Ming, this was a separate maritime kingdom, not the mainland government.
Qing DynastyAnnexed 1683Following the defeat of the Kingdom of Tungning, the Qing annexed Taiwan. It was governed as a prefecture of Fujian Province until becoming its own province in 1887.
Japanese Rule1895–1945Following the First Sino-Japanese War, the Qing ceded Taiwan to Japan “in perpetuity” via the Treaty of Shimonoseki.
Republic of China (ROC)1945–PresentAfter WWII, the ROC took control. Since 1949, the ROC government has been based exclusively in Taiwan after losing the Civil War on the mainland.
PRCNo ControlThe People’s Republic of China has never exercised administrative or military control over the island of Taiwan.

1. The “Antiquity” Argument

From a strictly Westphalian (state-based) legal perspective, you are correct: Taiwan was not part of the Chinese state for the vast majority of history. The PRC’s claim of “antiquity” often relies on cultural and ethnic ties or sporadic contact (such as a 3rd-century expedition by the Kingdom of Wu) rather than continuous administrative rule.

2. The Qing Dynasty Paradox

You made a sharp point regarding the Qing. The CCP often frames the Qing’s later years as a “century of humiliation” and its rulers as “alien” (Manchu). However, modern Chinese territorial claims are almost entirely based on the maximalist borders achieved by the Qing Empire at its height.

3. The 4-Year Window (1945–1949)

While you noted the ROC held Taiwan for 4 years before the split, the PRC views itself as the “successor state” to the ROC. Under the “Succession of States” theory in international law, the PRC argues that all rights and territories held by the ROC (including Taiwan) automatically transferred to them in 1949. This is the core of their legal argument, though it is contested by the fact that the ROC government never ceased to exist.

4. The “Ancestry” Logic

Your comparison to the Kievan Rus’ is a common counter-argument used by political scientists. It highlights the difference between ethnographic history (where people came from) and sovereign history (who governed the land).

  • Ethnographic: The majority of Taiwan’s population today are Han Chinese whose ancestors migrated from the mainland.
  • Sovereign: Proximity and ancestry do not automatically grant sovereign rights in modern international law (e.g., the UK does not own the US, despite historical and ancestral ties).

Legal Status

The legal status of Taiwan is often described as one of the most complex “loose ends” of World War II. While the previous breakdown covered the chronological history, the treaties are where the legal battle for “who owns what” actually takes place.

1. The San Francisco Peace Treaty (SFPT, 1951)

Signed by 48 nations and Japan, this is the primary document that officially ended WWII in the Pacific.

  • The Provision: Under Article 2(b), Japan renounced all “right, title, and claim to Formosa [Taiwan] and the Pescadores.”
  • The Catch: Crucially, the treaty did not name a recipient. It didn’t say the islands were being given back to “China” or to any specific government.
  • The Reason: At the time, the world was split. The U.S. recognized the ROC (in Taipei), while the UK and USSR recognized the PRC (in Beijing). To avoid a diplomatic deadlock that would prevent the peace treaty from being signed at all, the Allies drafted it with “studied ambiguity,” leaving the final status of Taiwan “undetermined.”

2. The Treaty of Taipei (1952)

Since neither the ROC nor the PRC were invited to San Francisco, Japan signed a separate bilateral treaty with the ROC in Taipei.

  • The Goal: To officially end the state of war between Japan and the ROC.
  • The Conflict: The ROC argues this treaty confirmed the transfer of sovereignty to them. However, legal scholars note that Japan simply “recognized” the renunciation it had already made in the SFPT. Because Japan no longer “owned” Taiwan after the SFPT, many argue it had no legal standing to “give” it to the ROC in a later bilateral deal.

The PRC’s claim relies heavily on political declarations made during the war, while the “undetermined status” argument relies on formal treaties signed after it.

DocumentYearTypeStatus of Taiwan
Cairo Declaration1943Political StatementStated Taiwan “shall be restored to the Republic of China.”
Potsdam Proclamation1945Political StatementReaffirmed the terms of the Cairo Declaration.
San Francisco Treaty1951Legally Binding TreatyJapan renounces sovereignty; no recipient named.
Treaty of Taipei1952Legally Binding TreatyJapan renounces sovereignty; refers back to the SFPT.

Why this matters today

This “undetermined” legal status is the reason why many countries (including the U.S.) have a “One China Policy” rather than a “One China Principle.”

  • The PRC Principle: “Taiwan is an inalienable part of China.”
  • The U.S. Policy: “We acknowledge the Chinese position that Taiwan is part of China, but we do not explicitly recognize it as a matter of settled international law.”
    By not using the word “recognize,” the U.S. and others maintain a legal “gray zone” that allows them to treat Taiwan as a state-like entity without officially contradicting the 1951 treaty’s silence on the matter.

Taiwan

🇨🇳 China’s Stance and Leadership Rhetoric

Chinese President Xi Jinping has consistently emphasized the inevitability of Taiwan’s reunification with mainland China. In his 2024 New Year’s address, Xi declared:​Reuters+1The US Sun+1

“No one can stop the historical trend of national reunification.” ​Reuters

This statement underscores Beijing’s unwavering commitment to its “One China” policy, viewing Taiwan as an inseparable part of its territory.​

🪖 Military Posturing and Exercises

China has intensified its military activities around Taiwan, conducting large-scale drills to signal its readiness and deter any moves toward Taiwanese independence. Notably:​FDD+7Reuters+7AP News+7

  • Joint Sword-2024 Exercises: In May and October 2024, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) conducted extensive military drills encircling Taiwan, involving warships, fighter jets, and missile units. These exercises aimed to simulate a blockade and demonstrate China’s capability to isolate the island. ​Wikipedia+1AP News+1
  • Record Air Incursions: On October 14, 2024, China deployed 125 warplanes in a single day, marking the highest number of aircraft incursions into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone (ADIZ) to date. ​AP News
    These actions are perceived by Beijing as punitive measures against what it deems separatist activities by Taiwan’s leadership.​Business Insider

🗳️ Public Opinion in Taiwan

Surveys indicate a strong preference among Taiwanese citizens for maintaining the current state of affairs:​Chicago Council on Global Affairs+1Wikipedia+1

  • Rejection of “One Country, Two Systems”: A 2025 poll revealed that over 84% of Taiwanese oppose Beijing’s proposed framework for unification. ​Taipei Times
  • Support for Status Quo: The majority of Taiwanese favor preserving the island’s de facto independence without declaring formal independence or pursuing unification. ​Latest news & breaking headlines
    These sentiments reflect a desire to maintain Taiwan’s democratic governance and way of life amid external pressures.​

🕵️ Intelligence and Espionage Concerns

Taiwan has uncovered significant espionage activities linked to China:​Latest news & breaking headlines

  • Infiltration Cases: Since 2020, at least 159 individuals, including military personnel and government officials, have been charged with spying for China. These cases highlight Beijing’s efforts to gather intelligence and influence Taiwan’s political landscape. ​Latest news & breaking headlines
    Such incidents have raised alarms about national security and the extent of China’s covert operations within Taiwan.​

🌐 International Dynamics

The geopolitical landscape surrounding Taiwan is increasingly complex:​

  • U.S. Support: The United States continues to provide arms sales to Taiwan and has reaffirmed its commitment to the island’s defense under the Taiwan Relations Act. ​Wikipedia+1Reuters+1
  • Allied Naval Presence: In April 2025, the UK’s HMS Prince of Wales aircraft carrier embarked on a deployment that may include transiting the Taiwan Strait, signaling international support for freedom of navigation and regional stability. ​The Irish Sun